Multiple bets provide the bookmakers with their biggest profit margins. Fact.
When a punter wins £1million to a £2 bet bookmakers love the PR that goes with it. Because the odds are so highly in their favour they love to try and encourage others to hope that they can achieve the same.
With Multiple bets and Multiples, we’re talking about:
Accumulators, Yankees, Lucky 15s, Goliaths, Patents, Trebles, Doubles and the like.
The reason that these are the most profitable are because they have a relatively small chance of winning so therefore the odds are stacked in the bookmaker’s favour.
Multiple Betting Example: 4-fold accumulator
Let’s consider a four horse accumulator with horses at 5-1, 6-1, 7-1 and 8-1. The odds are 3023-1; therefore your £1 will win £3023 profit if all 4 win, paying out £3024.
3023-1 in % terms means you have a 0.03% chance of winning, which is almost verging on remote. Choosing a 14-fold accumulator at 90,000-1, you have a 0.001% of winning, which verges on even more remote.
If the first three horses (5-1, 6-1 and 7-1 horses) won the actual bet on the fourth horse is around £340. Would you normally stake this much money on a horse?
Permutations: Turning your Multiple bet in your favour
Often called Perms for short, the best way of improving your chance from multiples is to calculate the odds that deliver a profit in every scenario.
Let’s use an example where a decent level of analysis on three races has determined that there are only three horses with a realistic chance of winning each race, so 9 horses in total. Labelled as:
- Race 1: A, B, C
- Race 2: D, E, F
- Race 3: G, H, J
Our perms are:
(I’ve left i out because some fonts may make it look like a 1).
There are 27 permutations, so to unconditionally profit from each perm every set of odds needs to be at least 28-1 because at £1 per line your total outlay will be £27. If the odds are 27-1 you will merely break even and what’s the point of that?
It’s not likely that will happen as some line prices will inevitably be lower than 28-1, so further analysis needs to pull some of the horses out and suggest 1 horse as a banker in one race that all other perms revolve around. Taking 2 horses out of one race reduces the number of perms to 9 so now we’re looking at 10-1 for each perm to unconditionally profit, which becomes more reasonable. (Remove B and C above to leave the top box only).
If we had A, D and G at Evens favourites (1-1), the odds would be 7-1 on that perm, so a hefty loss on the £27 outlay. By taking out B and C, the perm on A, D and G at 7-1 means a loss of £1 should that perm win.
Remember that the banker has to win to keep in with a chance on the others. If the banker loses the whole stake is wiped out, but interestingly as illustrated above, we can settle on three evens favourites as A, D and G.
This is where most syndicates win the Scoop6. They have enough permutations that warrant a profit on top of the outlay based on one banker or even two bankers and select two or three others in the other races to complete the bet. If either of the bankers lose the whole bet is lost, and bearing in mind that the minimum bet on 1 perm is £2, the minimum outlay here could add up to £2,000 in perms. If the banker loses, that’s £2,000 down the swanny.
Minimising losses vs Single Bets
The other question remains, wouldn’t it be better to just add a single bet on the selection that has the better chance? If your banker is a 5-1 ‘certainty’ and you’re about to stake £9 on others in two other races, depending on the other prices the profit margin may be minimal. A £9 bet at 5-1 will win £45 profit, so wouldn’t that be more justified?
If you are betting on that horse as a single, and matching it with two others that you think will do well in perms, this results in any payout as a bonus, and perhaps a £5 win bet matched with the other £4 in perms on the others makes better financial sense. Should any of the perms lose, the losses can be extracted from the £25 profits that the £5 at 5-1 won.
So far we’ve only mentioned win bets. Personally, I’ve always found each-way trebles and doubles to be a bit of a waste of time as they only seem to refund the bet of they all place.
If you are looking at minimising losses, you are not looking at maximising profits. I would rather look at how much the bet is worth than suggesting each-way returns.
One of the bets that most bookmakers hate is the each-way double as most times, even with two selections at 2-1, theywill return your stake. If you are looking to win your stake back you are not gambling for profit so what’s the point?
With the perms above in the example, you are looking for a profit margin based on all outcomes. A 9-1 breakeven on a 9 perm system is considered as a good alternative if the other perms may herald a profit margin of perhaps 20-1 or 30-1 based on prices. This ought to be a genuine profit-maximising betting opportunity with a worse-case scenario at the 9-1 breakeven.
Hopefully I’ve been able to sum up some of the ways in which to maximise the potential of multiple bets whilst attempting to turn the odds in your favour.
There are two real learning points in multiple betting:
- Understand the real odds of winning. A 0.03% chance of winning isn’t a justified bet as you wouldn’t bet on a 3000-1 horse would you?
- Turn the odds in your favour by attributing one of the selections as a banker. Only then can you realistically turn 27 perms into 9 and stand a chance of profiting handsomely.
If you’re attempting the Scoop6 this weekend:
- Select one or two bankers that WILL WIN
- Select 2 or three from the others to pad the bet out
- If any of the bankers lose you’re out of the race
- If any of the bankers lose you won’t have lost as much as you would if you’d have chosen 2 or three runners in every race.